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Friday, 29 January 2016

More than a numbers game: moving beyond the floor test

“Arunachal Pradesh has now demonstrated that the ‘dead letter’ — what Ambedkar believed would be Article 356 of the Constitution in reality — is quite alive and kicking Chief Ministers out of power.” Picture shows activists of the Arunachal Pradesh Youth Congress demanding the removal of the State's Governor.— Photo: By Special Arrangement

Dr. B.R. Ambedkar believed that Article 356 of the Constitution, which provides for imposition of President’s rule in the States and dissolution of State Assemblies, would, in reality, be only a ‘dead letter’. However, by the time a Constitution Bench ruled in the S.R. Bommai v. Union of India case (1994) that a presidential proclamation under Article 356 is subject to judicial review, that it is not an absolute but a conditional power, and that no Assembly can be dissolved before both Houses of Parliament ratify the proclamation, the provision originally meant to be used sparingly had been invoked over 90 times. After the verdict, however, one would have thought that the provision has been somewhat neutralised. That the casual resort to imposition of President’s rule or dissolution of State Assemblies at the whim of the ruling party at the Center has ended and the potential for further misuse removed. Arunachal Pradesh has now demonstrated that the ‘dead letter’ is quite alive and kicking Chief Ministers out of power.

Many grounds have been cited in support of bringing the sensitive border State under Central rule: from “breakdown of the constitutional machinery” to “collapse of law and order” to other sinister charges such as a threat to the life and security of the Governor and alleged links between the Chief Minister and an extremist group. The context, of course, is something that the Congress is familiar with, as it had used similar circumstances to topple many a regime in the past: dissidence within the ruling party and the Opposition colluding with the rebels to bring down the regime. In Arunachal Pradesh, the party is at the receiving end. It had 47 MLAs in a 60-member House, and the BJP 11, and yet its Chief Minister has been deposed by dissidents acting in concert with the Opposition and helped by the Governor.

Spotlight on the Governor

The manner in which Arunachal Pradesh was brought under President’s rule highlights a significant strand of political behaviour in the country. Even constitutional authorities believe less in law and propriety than in their ability to work around them to achieve their desired results. And one is not merely talking about Governor J.P. Rajkhowa while saying this. It is equally applicable to the deposed Chief Minister, Nabam Tuki. It is quite obvious that the Governor was more concerned about removing the Speaker and installing a rival faction leader as Chief Minister than giving an opportunity to Mr. Tuki to demonstrate his majority on the floor of the House. As for Mr. Tuki, he appears to have done nothing to ascertain his support within the Congress legislature party in the face of brewing dissidence within its ranks. Nor did he convene the Assembly until it became a constitutional necessity as it was nearly six months since the House had last met.

The Gauhati High Court has categorically ruled in favor of the Governor’s decisions in the present crisis. It has upheld his power to summon or prorogue the Assembly under Article 174(1) and his power to send messages, even fixing a specific item on the agenda of the legislature, under Article 175(2). The court saw nothing wrong in the Governor advancing a sitting of the House from January 14, 2016 to December 16, 2015. Nor did it find anything illegal in his specifying that a motion to remove the Speaker should be taken up immediately after the House convenes. In effect, a controversial ‘sitting’ of 33 members of the Assembly in a makeshift venue has been upheld by the high court. It is somewhat ironical that at a time when even a presidential proclamation is subject to judicial review, case law on the role of the Governor still favors gubernatorial privilege and discretion.

A crucial question before the Supreme Court is whether the Governor can, in his discretion and without the aid and advice of the Council of Ministers, summon the legislature or advance a scheduled sitting; and whether he can fix the agenda for such a session on his own. Interestingly, the Gauhati High Court extensively quotes from a Madras High Court Full Bench verdict of 1973 favouring the Governor’s action in somewhat similar circumstances in the Tamil Nadu Assembly. There, too, the ruling party had split, the Speaker and the Deputy Speaker were in different factions, and the dissidents wanted to remove the Chief Minister through a censure motion. However, in the Tamil Nadu precedent — where also there was a parallel ‘Assembly session’ — the Governor was acting on the advice of the ministry of M. Karunanidhi while sending a message to the House that it should first take up a motion to remove the Speaker, whose loyalty lay with the dissidents. On the crucial question of the Governor’s discretion, the high courts have gone by the principle in Article 163: that the question whether any advice, and if so what advice, had been given to the Governor shall not be gone into by any court; and when a question arises whether the matter on which the Governor had acted was actually one on which he can use his discretion, the decision made by the Governor in his discretion will be final.

Options ahead of the floor test

The validity of President’s rule in Arunachal Pradesh will be decided on established constitutional principles, but the time may have come to go beyond even the floor test requirement in ascertaining whether a particular regime commands a majority. Just as unscrupulous defections are legally discouraged, opportunistic cooperation between ruling party dissidents and Opposition legislators just to bring down a Chief Minister may also have to be prevented. This can be achieved if the Governor asks the Chief Minister to submit proof of his support within his own legislature party or alliance partners before ordering a floor test. In the event of some factions withdrawing their support to the government, the Governor can always turn them away and ask them to move a no-confidence motion instead of coming to him. If there is any attempt by the Speaker or the Chief Minister to block such a motion, or if the Assembly is not convened, the Governor should not hesitate to write to the party’s leadership seeking proof of its legislature party still having only one leader. This may force the hand of parties that seek to avoid convening legislature party meetings and hoping that in the Assembly, a floor test can be managed by a partisan Speaker and by selective expulsions to change the composition of the House. In other words, those arguing for the primacy of the floor test will need to have their house in order before the matter is decided in the legislature.

An incumbent government’s reluctance to follow this process may lead to the Governor recommending that the Centre give a suitable direction to the State. For, under Article 365, it shall be lawful for the President to then hold that because of any non-compliance with the direction, the State can no more be run in accordance with the Constitution. This sequence — proof of subsisting support within the ruling party, a floor test, and in the event of these efforts being blocked, a formal direction from the Union, followed by a determination on the constitutionality of the continuance of the regime — may address concerns of partisan behaviour.

Even in times when the incumbent regime swears by “co-operative federalism”, Raj Bhavans are seen as sinecures for friends of the ruling party and its formerly active members and associates. New norms will have to guide both the appointment of Governors and their functioning. The recommendations of the Sarkaria Commission on Centre-State relations are readily available with regard to choosing the occupants of Raj Bhavan.

It had said a Governor should be someone eminent in some walk of life, and should not be one “who has taken too great a part in politics generally, and particularly in the recent past”. Only a few eminent personalities outside the domain of politics and civil or military service have been made Governors. As long as parties pursue their own political interests rather than abide by the Constitution, it will be left to the courts to uphold federal norms.

GDP expanded 7.2 % last year, slower than estimated

Image result for GDP expanded 7.2 % last year, slower than estimated

India’s economy expanded 7.2 per cent in the financial year ended March 2015, marginally slower than the previous estimate of 7.3 per cent. “Real GDP or GDP at constant (2011-12) prices for the years 2014-15 and 2013-14 stands at Rs.105.52 lakh crore and Rs. 98.39 lakh crore respectively, showing growth of 7.2 per cent during 2014-15, and 6.6 per cent during 2013-14,” according to a statement released by the Statistics and Programme Implementation Ministry.

In terms of real Gross Value Added, that is, GVA at constant (2011-12) prices, there has been a growth of 7.1 per cent in 2014-15, as against a growth of 6.3 per cent in 2013-14, according to the statement.

RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan had on Thursday warned that we should be careful about how we measure growth. People are shifting between activities, he said, but it is important that when they shift to a new area, they are creating value.

The overall consensus seems to be that, despite the confusion in the national accounts caused by the revised methodology of computing GDP and GVA, there does not seem to be any other option but to use them.

“Raghuram Rajan has said that you should be careful about the GDP numbers. But these are the official numbers, and you need them as a benchmark,” M Govinda Rao, Professor Emeritus at the National Institute of Public Finance and Policy, told The Hindu.

The buoyancy of the indirect tax numbers have also helped, added Mr Rao.

“Around 80 per cent of economists feel that the way the new GDP numbers are being calculated has yielded in a higher estimate than reality. The belief is that the economy is actually growing at 5-6 per cent,” Ashok Gulati, Infosys Chair Professor at the Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations said, adding that there was no deliberate attempt to fudge the numbers. The problem lies with the methodology.

The problems with the GDP data come when they are analysed on a sectoral basis and also when they are compared to the other indicators of economic performance.

“If you look at all the other indices, growth in capital stock, exports, agriculture, industrial production, etc, then this (the GDP growth rate) will reconcile with none of them. There needs to be an external committee than can audit these numbers and bring credibility back to the government’s numbers,” said Rajiv Kumar, senior fellow at the Centre for Policy Research.

High-employment sectors such as agriculture are growing very slowly, adding to the concerns. The revised numbers peg the agricultural GVA at 1.3 per cent in 2014-15, up from the 0.6 per cent provisionally estimated earlier. The secondary sector, comprising manufacturing and construction, grew at 5.4 per cent in the same period, down from the estimated 6.5 per cent. The services sector grew at a robust 10.3 per cent.

“What each sector is saying is important. More than 50 per cent of the workforce is employed in agriculture, but the sector is growing at less than 2 per cent. Now, you can say that there was a drought, but it is the job of government policy to deal with such situations,” Mr Gulati said.

Gross Capital Formation, a proxy for economic activity, decreased marginally from 36.2 per cent of GDP in 2013-14 to 35.9 per cent in 2014-15.

“At constant (2011-12) prices, the private final consumption expenditure [a measure of individual spending capacity and inclination] is estimated as Rs. 55.20 lakh crore and Rs. 58.64 lakh crore, respectively for the years 2013-14 and 2014-15. The corresponding rates of PFCE to GDP for the years 2013-14 and 2014-15 are 56.1 per cent and 55.6 per cent respectively,” according to the ministry statement.

Fiscal deficit at 88% of annual target


The government’s fiscal deficit for the first nine months (April-December) of this financial year stood at 88 per cent of the annual target comparable with 100.2 per cent of the target it managed during the same period in the previous financial year.

The April-December fiscal deficit — the difference between government revenue and expenditure — stood at Rs.4.88 lakh crore, which is 88 per cent of the Rs.5.55 lakh crore target for the full year set by Finance Minister Arun Jaitley in the Budget. It amounts to 3.9 per cent of the GDP, a target that many industry leaders want to be pushed back in favour of increased public expenditure. They said it will boost domestic demand.

Several economists argue that it is important to stick to the fiscal deficit target since government accounts already fail to show the correct picture.

“The government has Rs.70,000 crore of unpaid bills to the Food Corporation of India due to the food subsidy, and a similar amount of unpaid bills due to the fertiliser subsidy that haven’t been shown in the Budget. This omission makes the fiscal deficit number look better than it is. It is important that the government sticks to the fiscal deficit target because the real number is likely higher than what is being shown,” Ashok Gulati, Infosys Chair Professor at the Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations told The Hindu.

The other argument is that the government must simultaneously increase public spending and still keep a tight grip on the fiscal deficit target since it is availing the benefit from falling oil and mineral prices.

“The government must stick to the fiscal deficit target. Government expenditure has to also be increased, but the government has to come up with innovative ways to finance this.

“One way is to revive PPPs, and the Kelkar Committee report laid out a good roadmap for this. Another way is to bring to resolution the large number of tax dispute cases held up in court, which will then release the tax arrears,” said M. Govinda Rao, Professor Emeritus at the National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.

The third option is to make use of the huge saving the government is incurring due to falling oil prices. Mr. Jaitley on Friday told the Press Trust of India that the savings from oil prices will be pumped into infrastructure.

Kerala School Arts Festival


The 56th Kerala State School Arts Festival has 12,000 students participating in 232 events. The pictures featured here are from Poorakkali, Margamkali, Kathakali, Duff Muttu and audience enjoying mimicry in Thiruvananthapuram. It concludes on January 







Chandy gets two months of respite

Solar scam accused Saritha S Nair arrives to appear at Solar commission office in Kochi on Friday.

The Kerala High Court on Friday gave Chief Minister Oommen Chandy and Power Minister Aryadan Mohammed a two-month respite from being investigated by the Vigilance and Anti-Corruption Bureau.

The vigilance court in Thrissur on Thursday had ordered a probe with registration of an FIR against Mr. Chandy and Mr. Mohammed, who are in the centre of a political storm over corruption allegations raised by Saritha S Nair, a key accused in the solar scam that has rocked the State. While staying the vigilance court directive in response to writ petitions filed by Mr. Chandy and Mr. Mohammed, the High Court came down heavily on S.S. Vasan, the vigilance judge who had issued the order based on a complaint by a local activist.

Editorial: Oommen Chandy must resign

Justice P. Ubaid severely castigated the judge, observing that the complaint was based on newspaper reports and a CD of unknown content, and newspaper reports have only hearsay value. He also remarked that the Supreme Court had made it obligatory to cause a preliminary inquiry on a complaint made under the Prevention of Corruption Act (PCA) before it was forwarded to the police with a directive to register a crime and investigate it.

Soon after the High Court order, Mr. Vasan, who has two more years until retirement, e-mailed the High Court Registrar, requesting to be allowed to put in his papers.

Charges a political conspiracy: Chandy

Kerala Chief Minister Oommen Chandy and Power Minister Aryadan Mohammed in their writ petitions before the High Court against the Vigilance and Anti-Corruption Bureau order, contended that scam accused Saritha S. Nair’s revelations were based on a conspiracy, and made with an ulterior motive to obtain pecuniary advantage from parties with vested interests, besides to effect a withdrawal of the ongoing investigation into crimes committed by her.

They also alleged that the State’s Opposition parties may have had an active role in it, claiming they were “hand in glove with anti-government forces to capitalise on politically, in the upcoming elections to the Assembly.”

Even as the High Court was delivering its order, sporadic violence erupted in many districts across Kerala leaving many injured, with workers of the Democratic Youth Federation of India (DYFI) and the BJP protesting against Mr. Chandy’s refusal to quit office clashing with the police.

Meanwhile, Ms. Nair deposed before the Justice Sivarajan panel probing the solar scam on Friday. Her deposition will continue on Saturday.

Rahul Gandhi joins protesters at Hyderabad varsity

Congress vice-president Rahul Gandhi interacting with the agitating students at the University of Hyderabad on Saturday.

All India Congress Committee vice-president Rahul Gandhi, along with former Chief Minister of Meghalaya and Congress leader P.A. Sangma, on Saturday sat on fast with the agitating students of the University of Hyderabad (UoH).

The students are demanding that the university’s acting vice-chancellor Prof. Vipin Srivastava and P. Appa Rao, whose name is there in the police complaint lodged in connection with the death of research scholar Rohith Vemula, quit their posts for their complicity in the suicide of the scholar.

About 20 students from Osmania university also join the protest, demanding the resignation of the vice-chancellor.

Meanwhile, the Akhil Bharatiya Vidyarthi Parishad (ABVP) has called for a bandh of colleges in Telangana in protest against the “politics over dead bodies” done by Mr. Gandhi in the Hyderabad Central University over the Rohith Vemula issue.

Republican candidates debate absent Trump

Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump holds up his photo while greeting supporters after a campaign event on the campus of Drake University on Thursday, in Des Moines, Iowa.

In a debate boycotted by frontrunner Donald Trump, a shared aversion to him appeared to be a point of agreement among the other Republican presidential aspirants who sought to undermine one another. Mr. Trump addressed a separate rally where he raised funds for military veterans and took potshots at his opponents.

Mr. Trump skipped the debate over disagreements with Fox News that hosted it, particularly over one of the moderators, Megyn Kelly. Ms. Kelly had in an earlier debate asked Mr. Trump whether his comments denigrating women were suitable for a presidential candidate. Mr. Trump turned his ire on Ms. Kelly after the debate, saying that “she had blood coming out of her eyes… or wherever”. His tirade against her continued and on Friday, he retweeted a supporter who called Ms. Kelly “bimbo” and later justified it in an interview. Mr. Trump said he got an apology from Fox, but it was too late to rethink; the network said Mr. Trump demanded $5 million for his charities, in return for his participation, which was not acceptable to it.

“Let’s address the elephant not in the room,” Ms. Kelly opened the debate with a question to Senator Ted Cruz, who is Mr. Trump’s closest rival. “Donald Trump has chosen not to attend this evening’s presidential debate. What message do you think that sends to the voters of Iowa?” “I’m a maniac, and everyone on this stage is stupid fat and ugly…,” Mr. Cruz responded, imploring a common cause with others against Mr. Trump. Both Mr. Trump and Mr. Cruz are considered insurgents devoid of experience, inadequate in temperament and inconsiderate of the Republican Party’s moorings by the rest — and that became apparent soon.

“You now want to trump Mr. Trump on immigration,” Senator Marco Rubio told Mr. Cruz, reminding him of his earlier stance that supported legalising illegal immigrants. Jeb Bush reminded others that he had been taking on Mr. Trump from the beginning while others remained silent. “I kind of miss Donald Trump. He was a little Teddy Bear to me. We always had such a loving relationship,” Mr. Bush joked.

Mr. Rubio and Mr. Cruz had heated exchanges as both sought to disown and deny their earlier support to amnesty for immigrants.

Mr. Cruz said his plans were to revive the Reagan legacy — a social coalition of libertarians, conservatives and evangelicals and in government, total deregulation of the economy that will create a boom that will in turn support a new wave of American militarisation.

Discussing the American victory in the first Gulf war as a pointer for the current situation, the candidates drew different lessons. Mr. Cruz thought it was “saturation bombing” that won the war for America in 1992 and wanted the same to eliminate the Islamic State, while Mr. Bush and John Kasich said it was the coalition of Muslim countries that won the war. Mr. Bush and Mr. Kasich warned against anti-Muslim rhetoric.

Senator Rand Paul, though polling very low, stood out in the crowd with his libertarian positions against surveillance, security state and calling for better integration of African-Americans. “We cannot incarcerate another generation of black people. Our party needs to be part of the solution,” Mr. Paul said, referring to the disproportionate incarceration of the African-Americans in drug cases.

Mr. Rubio, who could potentially be the rallying point for the Republican establishment if Mr. Bush does not gain ground soon, appeared to be on overdrive to win over the evangelical voters. At one point he said, his life’s goal was to “live in eternity with my creator”. Asked whether he could be the saviour of the party, he said, Jesus Christ was the only saviour.

Trump for veterans

Meanwhile, only miles away from the debate venue, Mr. Trump addressed a gathering with his newfound interest — welfare of veterans. Veterans have not been spared of Mr. Trump’s diatribe earlier. DonaldTrumpforvets.com was set up hours before the event — and MSNBC discovered that the domain name was bought only for one year, raising doubts over his long term commitment — and Mr. Trump declared that more than $5 million was raised. Mr. Trump said the donations came from people who wanted to contribute to his campaign but were unable to, because he would not accept donations. “All of them are taking money from special interests. I was so greedy all my life. N