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Showing posts with label US presidential polls 2016. Show all posts
Showing posts with label US presidential polls 2016. Show all posts

Monday, 4 April 2016

Trump predicts “very massive recession” in U.S.

Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump.

Republican presidential front-runner Donald Trump predicted that the United States is on course for a “very massive recession,” warning that a combination of high unemployment and an overvalued stock market had set the stage for another economic slump.

“I think we're sitting on an economic bubble. A financial bubble,” the billionaire businessman said in an interview with The Washington Post published on Saturday.

Coming off a tough week on the campaign trail in which he made a series of missteps, Mr. Trump's latest comments bring him back into the limelight ahead of Tuesday’s important primary in Wisconsin where he trails in the polls.

The former reality TV star said that the real U.S. jobless figure is much higher than five percent number released by the U.S. Bureau of Labour Statistics.

“We're not at 5 per cent unemployment,” Mr. Trump said.

“We're at a number that's probably into the twenties if you look at the real number,” he said, adding that the official jobless figure is “statistically devised to make politicians - and in particular presidents - look good.”

Mr. Trump said “it's a terrible time right now” to invest in the stock market, offering a more bleak view of the U.S. economy than that held by many mainstream economists.

The interview was bylined by the Post's Robert Costa and famed Watergate reporter Bob Woodward.

A real estate magnate, Trump has made appealing to blue-collar workers a hallmark of his bid for the Republican nomination for the Nov. 8 presidential election, often blaming unemployment on the outsourcing of U.S. jobs and facilities to countries such as China and Mexico.

Mr. Trump vowed in the interview to wipe out the more than $19 trillion national debt “over a period of eight years,” helped by a renegotiation of trade deals.

“I'm renegotiating all of our deals, the big trade deals that we're doing so badly on,” he said.

NATO again

After making controversial statements about abortion last week, Mr. Trump has shown little sign of heeding calls from fellow Republicans to adopt a more presidential tone so as to avoid alienating voters in the November general election if he wins the nomination.

On Saturday, he questioned close U. S. ties to Saudi Arabia and again accused U.S. allies of not pulling their weight in the NATO military alliance.

Mr. Trump told a campaign rally in Racine, Wisconsin that partners in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization “are not paying their fair share” and called the 28-nation alliance "obsolete.”

“Either they pay up, including for past deficiencies, or they have to get out. And if it breaks up NATO, it breaks up NATO,” Mr. Trump said.

Tuesday's Wisconsin nominating contest could be a turning point in the Republican race. Mr. Trump, 69, trails his leading rival, U.S. Senator Ted Cruz, 45, of Texas in the state.

A Cruz win would make it harder for Mr. Trump to reach the number of 1,237 delegates needed to secure the nomination before the Republican national convention in July. The winner will get to claim all of Wisconsin's 42 delegates.

Friday, 1 April 2016

Trump doesn’t know much about foreign policy: Obama

US President Barack Obama.

US President Barack Obama has questioned Republican Presidential candidate Donald Trump’s foreign policy credentials, saying he doesn’t “know much” about the world.

“They tell us the person who made the statements doesn’t know much about foreign policy or nuclear policy or the Korean Peninsula or the world generally,” Mr. Obama told reporters on Friday at the conclusion of nuclear security summit in Washington.

He said Mr. Trump’s recent statements on U.S. foreign policy, that has unnerved the national security establishment, came up during his interaction with world leaders.

“I’ve said before that people pay attention to American elections. What we do is really important to the rest of the world.

“Even in those countries that are used to a carnival atmosphere in their own politics, want sobriety and clarity when it comes to US elections,” Mr. Obama said.

“They understand President of the United States needs to know what’s going on around the world and has to put in place the kinds of policies that lead not only to our security and prosperity, but will have an impact on everybody else’s security and prosperity,” he added.

Earlier, Mr. Trump had favoured countries like Japan and South Korea developing their own nuclear weapons capabilities to defend themselves rather than the U.S. protecting them.

“America’s alliance with Japan and South Korea is one of the cornerstones of US presence in the Asia- Pacific region.

It is underwritten, the peace and prosperity of that region and has been an enormous boom to American commerce and American influence,” the U.S. President said.

Mr. Obama said it has prevented the possibilities of a nuclear escalation in conflict between countries that in the past and throughout history have been engaged in hugely destructive conflicts and controversies.

He called foreign policies with countries like Japan and South Korea an investment that rests on the sacrifices that American men and women made back in World War II.

“We don’t want somebody in the Oval Office who doesn’t recognize how important that it is,” Mr. Obama said.

Wednesday, 17 February 2016

Obama believes Trump will not be President

U.S. President Barack Obama

U.S. President Barack Obama believes Republican White House hopeful Donald Trump would not be elected as his successor as being a President is tougher than hosting a reality show and Americans are too “sensible” to elect him.

“I continue to believe Mr Trump will not be President. And the reason is because I have a lot of faith in the American people, and I think they recognise that being President is a serious job,” Mr. Obama told reporters after the first ever US-ASEAN Summit in Sunnylands, California. “It’s not hosting a talk show or a reality show. It’s not promotion. It’s not marketing,” he said.

The 69-year-old billionaire real estate tycoon fired back, saying Mr. Obama was lucky that he did not run for office in 2012. “You’re lucky I didn’t run last time when Romney ran because you would have been a one-term president,” Mr. Trump said at a campaign rally in South Carolina. Mr. Obama also criticised other Republican candidates.

He said he thinks foreign observers are troubled by some of the rhetoric that’s been taking place in these Republican primaries and Republican debates. “I don’t think it’s restricted, by the way, to Mr. Trump. I find it interesting that everybody is focused on Trump, primarily just because he says in more interesting ways what the other candidates are saying, as well,” he noted. “He may up the ante in anti-Muslim sentiment, but if you look at what the other Republican candidates have said, that’s pretty troubling, too,” Mr. Obama said.

The President said Mr. Trump was not the only Republican who raised concerns, but he singled out the real estate mogul as someone who would be singularly unprepared for the responsibilities of the Oval Office.

In an apparent reference to another Republican presidential aspirant Marco Rubio, the Senator from Florida, Mr. Obama said there is a candidate who sponsored a bill, which he supported, to finally solve the immigration problem, and he’s running away from it as fast as he can.

Observing that all Republican candidates are denying climate change, Mr. Obama said he this that’s troubling to the international community, since the science is unequivocal.

Other countries around the world, they kind of count on the United States being on the side of science and reason and common sense, because they know that if the U.S. does not act on big problems in smart ways, nobody will, Mr. Obama said.

“But this is not just Mr. Trump. Look at the statements that are being made by the other candidates. There is not a single candidate in the Republican primary that thinks we should do anything about climate change; that thinks it’s serious. Well, that’s a problem,” said the U.S. President.

Being in the office, he said, is not a matter of pandering and doing whatever will get one in the news on a given day. “Sometimes it requires you making hard decisions even when people don’t like it, and doing things that are unpopular, and standing up for people who are vulnerable but don’t have some powerful political constituency,” he said.

However, Mr. Trump continued to lead in the Republican polls in South Carolina, where the primary is scheduled for Saturday.

In an American Research Group (ARG) poll conducted this week, Mr. Trump was leading by 33 per cent followed by Mr. Rubio at 16 per cent. CNN/ORC in its polls said Mr. Trump had support of 38 per cent, while Ted Cruz was at the second spot with 16 points. In South Carolina, Mr. Trump was highly critical of Mr. Obama’s record in office.

Mr. Trump claimed Mr. Obama has done a “lousy” job on spending, national defence, healthcare and immigration. “You look at our budgets, our spending, we can’t beat ISIS, Obamacare is terrible — we’re going to terminate it — absolutely terminate and replace it,” he said.

“You look at everything. Our borders are like Swiss cheese. This man has done such a horrible job, he’s set us back so far. For him to say that is actually a great compliment, if you want to know the truth,” Mr. Trump said.

Friday, 5 February 2016

Among the believers: On the American campaign trail


“Muslims? Is she talking about grandma?” her four-year-old daughter asked Kelda York. “Yes,” Ms. York replied, “Grandma and other Muslims.”

What aroused the child’s curiosity was Democratic presidential aspirant Hillary Clinton’s call to “hold our Muslim friends close to the rest of the society”. Ms. York’s mother had converted to Islam two decades ago. “My mother started reading about Islam when my father went to Iraq as a solider in 1992 and converted,” Ms. York said. She brought both her daughters to Ms. Clinton’s rally. “I want them to grow up proud and confident,” she said.

In defense of diversity
Ms. Clinton is facing an uphill task in New Hampshire that will choose between her and Bernie Sanders, Senator from the neighborliness State of Vermont who commands significant influence in the State. Ms. Clinton was advised by many to skip the contest in New Hampshire altogether and focus on States where her presence is more formidable. “I could not have done that. So I am here,” she told a crowd of around 500 on Wednesday night. Carefully seated in the camera frame, right behind Ms. Clinton, were girls with Islamic scarves, blacks, whites, browns and Latinos; transgender people and women’s activists milled around. “Fighting for us,” their placards said, as they swayed to Rachel Platten’s Fight Song, a 2015 song released as a single that sold two million copies in the U.S. “Can you hear my voice this time?, This is my fight song, Take back my life song, Prove I’m alright song,” the song goes.

But waiting for Ms. Clinton’s arrival earlier in the evening, 20-year-old Miranda Monaghan was holding her placard down. “I have not decided yet,” she said. “I am not so sure she believes in all this,” the undergraduate student said, as Ms. Clinton explained how she and Mr. Sanders were in agreement on reining in the Wall Street and ensuring health care for all. Ms. Monaghan found Mr. Sanders more suitable for the job.

At Ms. Clinton’s rally, hours after Barack Obama made his first visit as President to a U.S. mosque, American diversity was being celebrated. On Tuesday evening, at Republican front runner Donald Trump’s rally some miles away, it was a different atmosphere. Mr. Trump, battered in the Iowa caucuses the previous night, was playing defensive and explaining his second place as a big victory. Ann Coulter, an immensely influential conservative commentator and author, outlined the agenda, speaking before Mr. Trump’s arrival on the stage. If anyone speaks clearer than Mr. Trump this season, it must be Ms. Coulter. Not that Mr. Trump’s philosophy needs explanation.

“Trump announced his candidacy talking about Mexican rapists. We are not supposed to say this, we can talk about American rape culture, but not about Mexicans raping. There is a whole list of politically incorrect things that one is not supposed to say... Donald Trump seems to be going through each one of them… one by one, he is going to use each one of them by the end of this campaign,” Ms. Coulter explained the virtues of her candidate. And she can’t wait to see Mr. Trump in the White House. “Can you imagine that?” she asks, and helps them imagine.

“The director of immigration will come and tell President Trump, ‘we have admitted 1.5 million Muslims since 9/11. Ninety per cent of them go on welfare immediately and some percentage of them kill Americans. Should we keep admitting a million Muslims every ten years?”’

“No… No,” the crowd replies.

“Yes, that is exactly what President Trump will say.”

Director of Immigration comes back again, “Should we keep replacing Americans with Mexicans, Somalis and Pakistanis?’’

“No… No… No.”

By this time, Trump supporters must have been looking for some Mexicans or Muslims inside the venue. “Please don’t react if anyone protests. Those who want to protest may protest outside,” a particularly law-abiding organizer announces before Mr. Trump takes the stage. At a previous rally in New Hampshire, Trump supporters beat up protesters.

“We have a movement. It is a people’s movement,” Mr. Trump declared. He then goes on to talk about the dangers that lurk around — “three people were killed by illegal immigrants” in unspecified places and climate change is a hoax Mr. Obama is playing. In a moment of gender sensitivity, Mr. Trump also points out to a woman who, he says, could be carrying a gun to places such as this gathering to prevent terror attacks. “This man, that man, and yes, we must have a woman too… you here.”

Judie Brown, a 65-year-old lady at the Trump meeting, is worried primarily about the economy and fears that her social security pension may be affected. In a measured tone, she explains the economic stress that the middle class is feeling. Does she agree with what she just heard about Muslims? “I was trying to avoid that topic. You know, I think they are unable to integrate into the society.” Does she support a ban on Muslims entering the country? “I support a ban on immigration altogether. Not only for Muslims,” she said, continuing to measure her words. And she had not finalised her choice in the primary — the other option she is considering is Marco Rubio, Senator from Florida.

As Mr. Trump signs autographs and poses for photographs, Adele can be heard in the background: “You’re gonna wish you never had met me… And I’m gonna make your head burn, Think of me in the depths of your despair….” Playing this Adele song in recent rallies is the latest controversy that Mr. Trump has courted. A spokesperson of the singer has said the candidate is using it without permission.

The rise of Rubio
Ms. Coulter ridiculed Mr. Rubio as the “Cuban kid who likes his high heels” but he is making it tough for Republican front runners Mr. Trump and Texas Senator Ted Cruz. After finishing a close third behind Mr. Trump in Iowa, Mr. Rubio is moving gradually to the center, projecting the image of a ‘compassionate conservative’, and is attracting more and more Republicans towards him. A compassionate conservative is what many others in the fray also want to be seen as — Jeb Bush, John Kasich and to a lesser extent Chris Christie have sought to build the same image. But Mr. Rubio’s advantage is that he is more charismatic and has managed the expectations better than others. He seems increasingly the choice of people such as Ms. Brown, and that indeed that is his pitch at a morning gathering on Thursday.

Mr. Rubio says he favors a compassionate criminal justice system that considers drug addicts as victims rather than criminals; a social security mechanism that will keep the elderly secure. He goes on to explain how, as a teenager, he got involved in a drunken brawl and almost landed in jail. “That would have ended my life. We have people who get caught for minor offences and get sucked into the justice system without any possibility of escape. Poor people, mostly black, are forced to plead guilty because they don’t have money to pay lawyers,” Mr. Rubio’s compassionate agenda in response to convenient questions goes on and on. But Mr. Rubio considers Mr. Obama’s mosque visit a ploy to “divide Americans”. “It gives an impression that Muslims are discriminated against in America. We have to address all these issues without dividing Americans based on gender, race, or class,” he says. He does not mention religious divisions, though his speech had numerous references to his own Christian faith. “Obama wants to change America. I want to restore America,” he says.

A few miles away and two hours later on Thursday, Mr. Cruz’s political speech sounds more like a bad Sunday sermon. Forty-year-old James Mosher, who was at the previous Trump rally too, has a question for Mr. Cruz — why doesn’t he get the support of “good people” such as Ms. Coulter? But still, he declares his support for Mr. Cruz. “Trump wrote a book called The Art of the Deal, it should be called The Art of the Con,” he explains later. “He has married thrice.” “Because of my faith in Jesus,” he cites his reason for supporting Mr. Cruz. Mr. Cruz says he is leading America to a “revolution”. “We are bringing power back to ‘we, the people’.” Revolution for him is a recognition of Judeo-Christian values that he thinks Mr. Obama has undermined.

Oldest man, biggest dreams
But the prospect of a more this-worldly revolution is inspiring the Bernie Sanders’s camp that a merchandise vendor described as a “bunch of broke college kids”. But that is not exactly true. John Baronowski, a 70-year-old man sitting behind Mr. Sanders, is on his feet numerous times through Mr. Sanders’s one-hour speech, just before his debate with Ms. Clinton on Thursday night. “The planet craves for him. Mankind needs him,” Mr. Baronowski says. There are people of all ages — some 500 of them — in the room.

The oldest man in the fray, 74-year-old Sanders is inspiring the biggest dreams. “How many of you have student loans?” Mr. Sanders asks. Numerous hands go up, many of those people in their fifties. “Your only crime is that you wanted education. We need to have free college education in this country,” he says. “We will pay for this by taxing Wall Street speculation.” A long list of welfare measures, all to be funded by more taxes on corporate America and by breaking the unfair practices of insurance and drug companies, cheer up the audience. “We need to dream big.” A dose of humour helps too. “Republicans like families. Particularly the wealthy families,” he says.

Can he deliver on all these promises? His supporters are divided. “All progress depends on the unreasonable man,” a state Senator quoted George Bernard Shaw while introducing Mr. Sanders. “If minimum wage is raised to 15 dollars an hour, my employer will shut shop,” Ms. Monaghan, who has a part-time job that pays 10 dollars an hour, says. Renee Bolduc, 17-year-old high school student, says: “Unless we try, how will we know?”

Playing in the background is John Lennon’s 1971 song, Power to the People. “You say we want a revolution, We better get on right away; Well, you get on your feet, And enter the street.”