No accord yet, Paris climate talks go into overtime

The climate talks in Paris went into overtime on Thursday night, as countries hit a hurdle on three major issues — the differentiation between developed and developing nations, financial arrangements for the developing world and the ambition for a global temperature target. A new draft was released by the French presidency of the conference.

The new near-final outcome text controversially has two options on meeting loss and damage needs of developing nations. One is a general provision that talks of the averting, minimizing and addressing it, and another, more detailed, excludes any regime of liability and compensation. The second provides countries help with risk assessment, risk management, insurance, help to relocate those displaced by climate event change.

If accepted, such a provision would deal a blow to small island states and coastal countries that experience more intense weather events such as the Chennai floods, since changes to climate are attributed to the historical stock of greenhouse gases emitted after the industrial revolution by Western nations.

The civil society organisation ActionAid said, “By including a clause for no future claim of compensation and liability, the U.S. has ensured people suffering from the disastrous impacts of climate change will never be able to seek the justice owed to them. This unfair and unjust draft deal won’t face up to the realities of climate change and will only serve to widen the chasm between rich and poor. Rich countries have a responsibility to ensure a fair global deal for everyone, not just themselves, and as we move into these final hours of negotiations poorer countries must not settle for anything less.”

An attempt is also seen to subsume the existing mechanism to handle loss and damage, called the Warsaw Mechanism, by creating a new one that will draw upon it and build further.

Countries would also include climate considerations including the building of resilience, into international development assistance.

On transparency, there is a provision for review of the implementation of national pledges, the INDCs through a thorough, objective and comprehensive technical assessment.

However the major issues found no accord, despite the 195 member countries in the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change holding a full 24 hours of intense discussions on Wednesday's agreement draft, overnight.

On Thursday evening, the French Foreign Minister, Laurent Fabius said a further night of “indaba” discussions would be needed with the help of facilitators in small groups. The sole idea of talks would now be to find solutions to the problems.

The COP21 president, Mr. Fabius's proposal on the “decision” arrived at by the Conference of the Parties in Paris, which will guide the the Agreement itself, has several interesting features.

The preamble has a specific reference to climate change being an urgent and potentially irreversible threat to the human species and the planet, requiring the widest possible cooperation among countries and an international response to accelerate the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. This acknowledges the international campaign by several organisations demanding that the agreement acknowledge the scientific evidence that underpins it.

INDCs fall short

National pledges made by countries as INDCs find a distinct place in this proposal. The section on INDCs notes with concern that the aggregate of these pledges in 2025 and 2030 are not likely to hold temperature rise to below 2 degrees C, and much greater effort will be needed after 2030 to keep it under 2°C or 1.5°C compared to pre-industrial levels.

A global stock taking exercise [which emerging countries would have to prepare for intensively from the current year] is proposed for 2019 to assess the progress towards realizing the long-term ambition for temperature rise. Also the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the scientific body whose Assessment Reports inform the decisions of the UNFCCC, has been asked to prepare a technical report in 2018 on the impacts of a 1.5°C warming, as well as the related greenhouse gas emission pathways.

If the provision on periodic review is incorporated finally, India would have to provide an updated INDC in 2020, and submit it next pledge by 2025, as a five-yearly cycle is prescribed and get it reviewed for clarity and transparency well in advance.

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As Modi, Sharif meet, Delhi Police link spy ring to Pakistan High Commission

In a dramatic turn, Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Pakistani Minister Nawaz Sharif met and spoke on the sidelines of the UNFCCC main event in Paris on Monday, shaking hands and sharing a sofa set as they chatted easily for a few minutes in private. While neither side issued any statement on what prompted the meeting, it was not by chance. Sources confirmed to The Hindu that NSA Ajit Doval had met with Pakistan High Commissioner Abdul Basit two weeks ago, to discuss the possibility of the Prime Ministers meeting in Paris. “If we really keep positive sentiments for one another, we must take practical steps towards their fulfillment,” Mr. Sharif was quoted by Pakistani media as saying on Monday after his meeting with Mr. Modi. “We want to make progress and improve both internal and external matters,” he said, adding that all states should adopt the path of dialogue for resolution of issues.

The meeting came on the same day Delhi police claimed a spy ring busted by them in Jammu had possible links to the Pakistan High Commission. Referring to the two men arrested including a BSF head constable and his alleged ISI recruiter, Joint Commissioner of Police Ravindra Yadav told the media that they had been " invited to Pakistan by their handler and told that their people at the Pakistan high commission will help him.” Mr. Yadav added that no investigation had been undertaken against the Pakistan High Commission as the men were “not aware of the contact of the concerned person at the high commission.” However, the government ally Shiv Sena demanded that the High Commission be shut down in view of the alleged spy racket. “The Pakistan High Commission in Delhi should be locked and the key should be thrown away. It should be closed," Shiv Sena leader Sanjay Raut told a news agency.The developments in Delhi didn’t seem to affect the bonhomie between the two prime ministers in Paris, however, who officials said exchanged pleasantries during the conversation. While officials wouldn’t confirm if any substantive issues were also discussed, it is possible they discussed India and Pakistan’s similar positions on the need for ‘climate justice’ during the COP21 event. Shortly before leaving for Paris, Mr. Modi had spoken on his monthly ‘Mann ki Baat’ radio address of his desire for a joint SAARC forum to fight climate change.

PM Modi’s meeting with Mr. Sharif marked the first between the two leaders since the summit in Ufa this July, which was followed by the cancellation of NSA talks they had agreed upon. In September, the two leaders had also shared a common stage at a UN peacekeeping conference, but had failed to meet, or to exchange more than a wave while in New York together. It remains to be seen whether the conversation between the two leaders could kickstart any further engagement between India and Pakistan that has been hanging fire for months. In particular, Pakistan has invited EAM Sushma Swaraj to attend the ‘Heart of Asia’ donor conference on Afghanistan to be held in Islamabad on December 7th, and that apart, the BCCI has submitted a proposal for permission for Team India to play a series of cricket matches with Pakistan in Sri Lanka later this month. Any forward movement on either proposal could mark a thaw in ties between the two countries.

“It is too early to say what will be the formal outcome of the meeting in Paris. But both the leaders should get sufficient space to decide the future course of action,” advised Jayant Prasad, Director General, Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (IDSA). However ,any plans for an India-Pakistan thaw could be dealt a blow with any possible further revelations from the ISI spy ring bust. Police wouldn’t comment on whether the spy chain busted in Jammu had any links to the other alleged ISI modules busted in Kolkata and other parts of the country, but wouldn’t rule it.

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India hits out at Kerry for terming it a ‘challenge’ at Paris meet

India has reacted strongly to U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry’s statement that the country will be a “challenge” in the coming climate change talks in Paris.

“It is in a way unfair to say that India will be a challenge. It is actually not doing justice to India,” Union Environment Minister Prakash Javadekar told PTI.

“The U.S. is our great friend and strategic partner. His [Kerry’s] comment is unwarranted and unfair. The attitude of some of the developed countries is the challenge for the Paris conclusion,” the Minister said.

Mr. Javadekar said there was no question of compromising on India’s stand on climate change. He blamed the “attitude” of the developed countries for the problem. India was trying to “proactively” forge a consensus on the issue.

The Minister said while there was no pressure from the developed world on India, the country was also not in the habit of taking pressure from anybody.

“We’ve got a lot of focus on India right now to try to bring them along. India has been more cautious, a little more restrained, in its embrace of this new paradigm, and it’s a challenge,” Mr. Kerry had told an international business daily.

The Paris Climate Conference, slated to take place from November 30 to December 11, will look to achieve a legally binding and universal agreement on climate to check global warming.

“When you are doing a global arrangement, every country will put forth its issues. We have to take consensus along. India is always is on the side of consensus. We are proactively helping to bring consensus. We are not naysayers, but helping bring consensus. It is not about compromising,” Mr. Javadekar said. “….But our firm belief is Paris will be under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and with all its principles like CBDR, historical responsibility, polluter to pay and equity. All are embedded in the new Paris agreement.”

While the developed world has been looking at increased emission cuts from developing countries, the latter — including India — have sought common but differentiated responsibility. Shorn of jargon, it means that the developed world has been the prime polluter since its early lead in industrialization and stays way ahead in emissions per capita to this day, meaning that it cannot expect nations now industrializing to forget this skew.

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