Lone-wolf attack increases climate of uncertainty in Britain

If the United Kingdom had the same gun laws as the United States, as observers in London were quick to point out, the attack on commuters in Leytonstone station on Saturday night by a knife-wielding man who reportedly shouted “This is for Syria” could have been carnage. As it turned out, the man knifed one person, who suffered serious but not life threatening injuries, and two others who fortunately sustained only minor injuries before the police overpowered the attacker.

The security forces are treating the incident on Saturday night as a “terrorist incident”, said Commander Richard Walton, head of Counter-Terrorism Command in the Metropolitan Police. “The threat from terrorism remains as severe, which means that a terrorist attack is highly likely.”

While the IS links of the attacker are under investigation – including if, like the San Bernardino killers, he was self-radicalised -- the UK mediascape on Sunday morning was alive with discussions on whether the incident was a consequence of the House of Commons vote last week in support of Britain bombing Syria. One of the issues why many MPs voted against airstrikes was precisely because it would further compromise the security scenario in Britain.

John Cryer, Labour MP for the east London constituency in which Leytonstone station falls, and who voted against airstrikes, does not draw that conclusion. He told BBC’s Sunday Politics that it would be “dangerous” to link the vote and its outcome to the attack. “We just don't know at the moment. But there doesn't seem to be immediate evidence that there is a direct link.”

“I am opposed to the airstrikes not because of its direct consequences, which seems to the primary basis of most of the opposition, but because I see it as displacement action from the real problem by western governments,” said Professor Bill Durodie, Professor and Chair of International Relations at the University of Bath, whose research focuses on risk, resilience, radicalisation and the politics of fear. “In many ways, the real crisis is the domestic crisis. I do think IS needs to be defeated, but more in terms of the battle of ideas,” he told The Hindu.

The uncertainties in the public mind appear to have only increased, with several opinion polls showing popular opposition in the UK to airstrikes only increasing after the vote.

British aircraft meanwhile completed a second and more deadly series of airstrikes. According to a Ministry of Defense statement eight strikes were conducted by Tornado GR4s and Typhoon FGR4s that used Paveway IV guided bombs to hit wellheads “thus cutting off the terrorists’ oil revenue at the very source.”

Both Prime Minister David Cameron and Defence Secretary Michael Fallon have warned that the involvement in Syria is going to be for the long haul. Reports suggest that Sirte in Libya, where the IS is reportedly regrouping may become the next target for the coalition. The Guardian reports that France flew its first reconnaissance missions over the town of Sirte, joining the drones of the US. “Sirte has been taken over by Isis, with the UN estimating that there are 1,500 fighters in the town, while reports suggest its airbase is being prepared by extremists to take suicide planes,” the paper reports.

A “crisis of belonging” is what engenders radicalization, says Professor Brodie pointing to the California killers as an example. “For a starting point we need to identify human values – and not necessarily western values -- and promote and celebrate them. Increasingly, my concern is that western politicians shy away from really engaging the public in principled political debate about values.”